tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-40601470484494055052024-03-20T05:30:21.693+01:00EconometríaLa finalidad de este Blog es proporcionar a los alumnos de Econometría de Miguel Jerez orientaciones sobre el trabajo que deben realizar para seguir sus cursosAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-19195705726576149142013-06-28T15:17:00.001+02:002013-06-28T17:23:03.777+02:00Econometrics: Final exam June 28th, 2013In June 28th 2013 we did the 2nd final exam of Econometrics. Here you can download:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exams/Ectr_grado_28_junio_2013_English.pdf" target="_blank">The blinded exam</a>, with the right answers in the last page</li>
<li>The unblinded exam [<span style="color: red;"><b>Not yet uploaded, I will do it ASAP</b></span>], with some handwritten remarks explaining the solution to each question</li>
</ul>
<div>
The following table summarizes the results of this exam, as well as the calculation of each final grade:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrBqtENxJWZn9V_gxeegF8H3cdL48vGPmZV6YN-W_70x0WhhKE98tZHm8cvMwZX6zLUaax4GHvuuuq-Jklral2YUcbcaKh7XdLvtNOPWbtCKKLX1Z34A1SHk0kv0MasybaOQRshI9w974/s425/Lista2_Eco2013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrBqtENxJWZn9V_gxeegF8H3cdL48vGPmZV6YN-W_70x0WhhKE98tZHm8cvMwZX6zLUaax4GHvuuuq-Jklral2YUcbcaKh7XdLvtNOPWbtCKKLX1Z34A1SHk0kv0MasybaOQRshI9w974/s400/Lista2_Eco2013.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<div>
If you think that your grade could be wrong, please send me a message using <a href="http://qvantvm.com/tinc?key=C5BIpa9t" target="_blank">this link</a>.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-10579852261855854512013-06-19T19:29:00.003+02:002013-06-19T19:30:12.770+02:00Aprender. Conducción y otras materias...<div>
Acabo de leer un texto bastante ingenioso y pintoresco, que expresa espléndidamente cómo me siento a veces después de 27 años enseñando Matemáticas, Estadística y Econometría a nivel universitario. Si os apetece leerlo, conviene echarle una pizca de humor y quizá de autocrítica:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<a href="http://cifrasyteclas.com/2013/02/06/los-profesores-no-podemos-conducir-por-ti/">http://cifrasyteclas.com/2013/02/06/los-profesores-no-podemos-conducir-por-ti/</a><br />
<br />
Puesto que el contenido de este <i>post </i>no es académico voy a abrirlo a los comentarios, críticas, autocríticas y sugerencias de mejora que queráis hacer.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-34105778555114701962013-06-12T17:59:00.000+02:002013-06-12T19:32:40.900+02:00Econometrics: 1st Final, end of the revision processThere seems to be no incidences to solve, so I will close the "Actas" next Friday, June 14th.<br />
<br />
I remind you, once again, that the second final exam will be next June 28th (12:00h) at Aulario, class #305. To help preparing it, we will do a group tutorship in June 26th (11:00h) at Pabellón Prefabricado, 1st floor.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b>If you want to cancel your email subscription to this blog, you can do so by clicking a link that appears at the bottom of all the e-mail messages.</b></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-45799442352132964872013-06-10T09:19:00.002+02:002013-06-10T09:19:42.657+02:00Econometrics: Final exam June 6th, 2013I have just registered your grades in UCMnet. I had to type them again so please check them to assure that they are correct.<br />
<br />
The second final exam will be next June 28th (12:00h) at Aulario, class #305. To help preparing it, we will do a group tutorship in June 26th (11:00h) at Pabellón Prefabricado, 1st floor.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b>If you want to cancel your email subscription to this blog, you can do so by clicking a link that appears at the bottom of all the messages.</b></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-77600368726984592832013-06-06T11:23:00.001+02:002013-06-07T11:03:34.099+02:00Econometrics: Final exam June 6th, 2013In June 6th 2013 we did the final exam of Econometrics. Here you can download:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exams/Ectr_grado_6_junio_2013-English.pdf" target="_blank">The blinded exam</a>, with the right answers in the last page</li>
<li><a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exams/Ectr_grado_6_junio_2013-English_UNBLINDED.pdf" target="_blank">The unblinded exam</a>, with some handwritten remarks explaining the solution to each question</li>
</ul>
<div>
The final grades, including the results of the final exam, are the following:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuo8bfyXgfrGj9xsiSyyX-Rj8axcM4Kkq-PM4T1ffJ7tyIGcOvrKoRwqG0aQ_G3xq-nDxMiUUbmXNDl2m-nbwh7DJoxTFJFWT5DXfn8KUNHo0az18_VCrtuOdIupEGOcnTuf3e3ID6jRI/s1600/Notas2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuo8bfyXgfrGj9xsiSyyX-Rj8axcM4Kkq-PM4T1ffJ7tyIGcOvrKoRwqG0aQ_G3xq-nDxMiUUbmXNDl2m-nbwh7DJoxTFJFWT5DXfn8KUNHo0az18_VCrtuOdIupEGOcnTuf3e3ID6jRI/s640/Notas2.png" width="308" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
The final grade has been computed as follows: Final exam (60%), Partial exams (30%), Active participation (10%)
<br />
<br />
If you think that your grade could be wrong, please send me a message using <a href="http://qvantvm.com/tinc?key=C5BIpa9t" target="_blank">this link</a>.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-24384860304206564902013-05-22T17:03:00.000+02:002013-05-23T18:50:33.021+02:00Econometrics: 2nd partial examIn May, 22 we did the 2nd partial exam. You can download an unblinded version by clicking <a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exams/Econometrics_Short_Test2-2013_UNBLINDED.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>. We solved it in the next class (May, 23).<br />
<br />
After discussing the exam in class, I found some ambiguities in the second question. Accordingly, I graded the exams again considering that ANY answer to this question (including "blank") was correct. The new grades are the following:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiUiWSgpTmy62xVxAXKFXt49OkIutrnBYTITs_ays0LVxjURfLiMY78I_dFgZMVs9ZMLwwrsJXHP3DtrxAANcDb5E5_IV5jNNXkd8yGHRm3HLF1XeacnhGPOY5PubLUL6h3j4AMOIWMIo/s1600/Imagen3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiUiWSgpTmy62xVxAXKFXt49OkIutrnBYTITs_ays0LVxjURfLiMY78I_dFgZMVs9ZMLwwrsJXHP3DtrxAANcDb5E5_IV5jNNXkd8yGHRm3HLF1XeacnhGPOY5PubLUL6h3j4AMOIWMIo/s1600/Imagen3.png" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
If you think that your grade may be wrong, please send me a message by clicking <a href="http://qvantvm.com/tinc?key=C5BIpa9t" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
<br />
The remaining extra activities to prepare the final exams are:<br />
<ul>
<li>June, 3th, 12:00h. Extra group tutorship to answer last-minute doubts before the first final exam (June 6th, at 9:00 AM)</li>
<li>June, 25th, 12:00h. Extra group tutorship to answer last-minute doubts before the second final exam (June 28th, at 12:00 AM)</li>
</ul>
All these activities will take place in Pabellón Prefabricado, Floor 1, North Wing.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-34472330827656678022013-05-02T12:16:00.004+02:002013-05-16T18:37:15.396+02:00Econometrics: weeks 13-16In <b><span style="color: red;">weeks 9-12</span></b> we:<br />
<ul>
<li>Finished Lesson 4.2 <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/Lesson42.pdf">Collinearity</a></li>
<li>Did a partial exam (Wednesday April 10th) including all the course content up to and including discrete regressors</li>
<li>Explained Lessons 5.1 and 5.2, <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson5/Lesson51.pdf">Heteroscedastic and non-normal dat</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson5/Lesson52.pdf">Influential observations and outliers</a>, as well as the corresponding practical cases</li>
<li>Started the explanation of Lesson 6.1: <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson6/Lesson61.pdf">Univariate models</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
In the next weeks we will:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Finish lessons 6.1 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson6/Lesson61.pdf">Univariate models</a>) and 6.2 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson6/Lesson62.pdf">Regression with time series data</a>)</li>
<li>Do the 2nd final exam: May, 22th 2013</li>
<li>Do some extra activities to prepare the final exam:</li>
<ul>
<li><b>May 17th, 10:30</b>. A 2 hr extra class, to answer doubts and do <a href="http://econometriamj.blogspot.com.es/p/examenes-de-cursos-previos.html">exercises from previous exams</a>. We will focus in Lessons 1-4.</li>
<li><b>May 20th, 11:00</b>. A 2 hr extra class, to answer doubts and do <a href="http://econometriamj.blogspot.com.es/p/examenes-de-cursos-previos.html">exercises from previous exams</a>. We will focus in Lessons 5-6.</li>
<li><b>June, 3th, 12:00h</b>. Extra group tutorship to answer last-minute doubts before the final exam (June 6th, at 9:00 AM)</li>
<li><b>All these activities will take place in Pabellón Prefabricado, Floor 1, North Wing.</b></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Graded personal homework</b><br />
<br />
I will not ask for new homework, as we will concentrate in preparing the final exam. However, I will cont</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-22505217183115462212013-04-10T20:13:00.004+02:002013-04-11T06:19:55.420+02:00Econometrics: Exam #1, April, 10th 2012The results of the exam that we did today are the following:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUOxRGy6qO4qj0lZNUMTuKb4oqsDg-nLOZ6cOsSg9kMKv3tGIFoC6TXi0zsG5DnSgTL5hHUBrhym5Gf1BhDKqUP9qB6euHwlTbfxp7Yn7JEkJRs2gGYk0JxOKOKC_jo7TxhHelyxRAgWM/s1600/Imagen1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUOxRGy6qO4qj0lZNUMTuKb4oqsDg-nLOZ6cOsSg9kMKv3tGIFoC6TXi0zsG5DnSgTL5hHUBrhym5Gf1BhDKqUP9qB6euHwlTbfxp7Yn7JEkJRs2gGYk0JxOKOKC_jo7TxhHelyxRAgWM/s1600/Imagen1.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
The grades are in the standard 0-10 metric. Those in <span style="color: red;"><b>red and bold</b></span> were rectified after finding a transcription error.<br />
<br />
By clicking <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exams/Econometrics_Short_Test1-2013%20UNBLINDED.pdf">here</a> you can download an unblinded version of the exam.<br />
<br />
I cordially remind you that <b>students must fill this <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dFJ2YlduUnBKTlVLMWEtQnlCR05aY0E6MQ">personal data form</a></b>.<br />
<br />
I also take this opportunity to warn the student UNIDENTIFIED that his name does not appear in the list of this group.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-72684218373981781452013-04-07T10:03:00.005+02:002013-04-07T10:03:53.790+02:00Econometrics: weeks 9-12 (April 8th to 28th)In <b><span style="color: red;">weeks 6-8</span></b> we:<br />
<ul>
<li>Finished working with the CEO compensation and <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/beauty.gdt">Wooldridge's "Beauty"</a> datasets</li>
<li>Explained Lesson 4.1 <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/Lesson41.pdf">Discrete and semi-continuous regressors. Polynomial terms</a></li>
<li>Started Lesson 4.2 <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/Lesson42.pdf">Collinearity</a></li>
<li>Solved the <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise%20sheet-2.pdf">Exercise sheet #2</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
<br />
The goals for <b><span style="color: red;">weeks 9-12</span></b> are:</div>
<ul>
<li>Finishing Lesson 4.2 <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/Lesson42.pdf">Collinearity</a></li>
<li>Doing a partial exam (final date: Wednesday April 10th) including all the course content up to and including discrete regressors</li>
<li>Explaining Lessons 5.1 and 5.2, <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson5/Lesson51.pdf">Heteroscedastic and non-normal dat</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson5/Lesson52.pdf">Influential observations and outliers</a>, as well as the corresponding practical cases</li>
</ul>
<a name='more'></a><b><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="color: red;">Warning</span></b><br />
<br />
I will not be able to attend to next April 11th class due to a professional meeting. We will compensate for the time lost with an extra class to answer doubts that will take place close to the June exam.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Activities:</b><br />
<ul>
<li>Download the materials for lessons 5.1 and 5.2, as well as the corresponding practical cases</li>
<li>Fit a log-linear regression to <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/beauty.gdt">Wooldridge's "Beauty"</a> dataset. Compare the results with those obtained with the linear model. Which model complies better with OLS hypotheses</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<b>Graded personal homework</b><br />
<br />
Send an e-mail to <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this address</a> (last day for delivery: <span style="color: red;"><b>Friday April 26th</b></span>). This message should:<br />
<ul>
<li>Summarize the results of previous activities</li>
<li>Describe any doubts about the topics explained in class </li>
<li>Write a 400 words approx. summary of your main conclusions after fitting a log-linear regression to <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/beauty.gdt">Wooldridge's "Beauty"</a> dataset. Please, try to follow the guidelines in Givens, G.H. and J.A. Hoeting (2002). <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Master/HoetingGivens_On_Communicating_Statistical_Results.pdf">Comunicating Statistical Results</a>.</li>
</ul>
This e-mail will be assessed as part of the "active participation" item (10% of final grade). You can facilitate processing these e-mails by complying with the deadline and delivery procedure (please use this <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com" target="_blank">email address</a>). I would also help if all the text is included in the body of the message body, avoiding attachments whenever possible.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-8872920319387109762013-03-09T09:49:00.000+01:002013-04-03T15:22:09.595+02:00Econometrics: weeks 6-8 (March 11th to April 7th)In <b><span style="color: red;">weeks 3-5</span></b> we:<br />
<ul>
<li>Explained Lessons 3.1 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Lesson3_1.pdf">Estimation</a>) and 3.2 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Lesson3_2.pdf">Inference</a>)</li>
<li>Reviewed the practical materials: <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise%20sheet-1.pdf">Exercise sheet #1</a>, <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Example_Weight_vs_Age.zip">Weight vs. age for a sample of children</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/ceosal2.gdt">CEO compensation</a> dataset (Wooldridge's ceosal2 dataset)</li>
</ul>
<br />
The goals for <b><span style="color: red;">weeks 6-8</span></b> are:<br />
<ul>
<li>Finish working with the CEO compensation dataset by fitting a log-linear model. We will see how this helps when modeling nonnormal data</li>
<li>Explaining Lesson 4.1 <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/Lesson41.pdf">Discrete and semi-continuous regressors. Polynomial terms</a></li>
<li>Modeling <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/beauty.gdt">Wooldridge's "Beauty" dataset</a></li>
<li>Solving part of the <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise%20sheet-2.pdf">Exercise sheet #2</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise_OLS.xls">Many least squares calculations done (almost) by hand</a> </li>
<li>Doing a partial exam (final date: April 10th)</li>
</ul>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>Activities:</b><br />
<ul>
<li>Please download again Lesson 3.2 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Lesson3_2.pdf">Inference</a>) as I updated the pdf file.</li>
<li>Solve the <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise%20sheet-2.pdf">Exercise sheet #2</a></li>
<li>Fit a regression model to explain the variables "liver", "heart" and "deaths" as a function of "alcohol" in Wooldridge's <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/wine.gdt">wine dataset</a>, and test for compliance with standard hypotheses.</li>
</ul>
The <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/wine.gdt">wine datase</a>t includes data reported in a New York Times article, December 28, 1994. The dependent variables deaths, heart, and liver can be each regressed against alcohol as nice simple regression examples. The conventional wisdom is that wine is good for the heart but not for the liver, something that these regressions seem to confirm.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Warning</span></b><br />
<br />
I will not be able to attend to next April 11th class due to a professional meeting. We will discuss the best way to compensate for the time lost.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Graded personal homework</b><br />
<br />
Send an e-mail to <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this address</a> (last day for delivery: <span style="color: red;"><b>Friday April 5th</b></span>). This message should:<br />
<ul>
<li>Summarize the results of previous activities</li>
<li>Describe any doubts about the topics explained in class </li>
<li>Write a 400 words approx. summary of your main conclusions after modeling Wooldridge's <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/wine.gdt">wine dataset</a>. Please, this time try to follow the guidelines in Givens, G.H. and J.A. Hoeting (2002). <a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Master/HoetingGivens_On_Communicating_Statistical_Results.pdf">Comunicating Statistical Results</a>.</li>
</ul>
This e-mail will be assessed as part of the "active participation" item (10% of final grade). You can facilitate processing these e-mails by complying with the deadline and delivery procedure (please use this <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com" target="_blank">email address</a>). I would also help if all the text is included in the body of the message body, avoiding attachments whenever possible.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-54849083026555912192013-02-15T10:37:00.003+01:002013-03-08T14:19:26.441+01:00Econometrics: weeks 3-5 (February 18th to March 10th)In weeks 1-2 we:<br />
<ul>
<li>Explained Lessons 1-2</li>
<li>Provided an introduction to Gretl, using mainly the dataset: <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/Hetero_NoNorm_NoLin.zip">Simulated data</a> </li>
</ul>
<br />
The goals for <b><span style="color: red;">weeks 3-5</span></b> are:<br />
<ul>
<li>Explaining Lessons 3.1 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Lesson3_1.pdf">Estimation</a>) and 3.2 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Lesson3_2.pdf">Inference</a>)</li>
<li>Reviewing the practical materials <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise_OLS.xls">Many least squares calculations done (almost) by hand</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Example_Weight_vs_Age.zip">Weight vs. age for a sample of children</a></li>
<li>We will do some applied work with the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/ceosal2.gdt">CEO compensation</a> dataset (Wooldridge's ceosal2 dataset)</li>
</ul>
<a name='more'></a>Following your suggestions, I added a new tab: <a href="http://econometriamj.blogspot.com.es/p/examenes-de-cursos-previos.html" target="_blank">Exámenes de cursos previos</a>.<br />
<br />
If you have not done it yet, I suggest you to subscribe to these posts by filling the box <b>SUSCRIPCIÓN POR E-MAIL </b>that you see at the right-hand-side column.<br />
<br />
<b>Activities:</b><br />
<br />
<b>Revise some basic concepts of previous courses</b>:<br />
<br />
- Algebra: <a href="http://www.mathwords.com/m/matrix.htm" target="_blank">matrices and vectors</a>, <a href="http://www.mathwords.com/l/linear_system_of_equations.htm" target="_blank">linear equations</a>, matrix operations, <a href="http://www.mathwords.com/i/inverse_of_a_matrix.htm" target="_blank">inverse of a matrix</a><br />
- Statistics: <a href="http://www.une.edu.au/WebStat/unit_materials/c4_descriptive_statistics/" target="_blank">descriptive statistics</a> (mean, variance, correlation,...), <a href="http://www.pindling.org/Math/Statistics/Textbook/Chapter7_inference_mean_proportion/estimator.htm" target="_blank">estimation</a>, <a href="http://stattrek.com/estimation/estimation-in-statistics.aspx" target="_blank">hypotheses testing</a><br />
<br />
<b>Download PQRS</b> from <a href="http://www.eco.rug.nl/medewerk/knypstra/pqrs.html">this website</a>. This free software does some useful things, among them, it substitutes statistical tables. PQRS does not need installation: you just download the .zip file, decompress it in any folder and run it "as is"<br />
<br />
<b>Solve</b> the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise%20sheet-1.pdf">Exercise sheet #1</a><br />
<br />
<b>Graded personal homework</b><br />
<br />
Send an e-mail to <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this address</a> (last day for delivery: <span style="color: red;"><b>Friday 8th February</b></span>). This message should:<br />
<ul>
<li>Summarize the results of previous activities</li>
<li>Describe any doubts about the topics explained in class </li>
<li>Write a 400 words approx. summary of your personal analysis of the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/ceosal2.gdt">CEO compensation</a> dataset</li>
</ul>
This e-mail will be assessed as part of the "active participation" item (10% of final grade). To facilitate processing the e-mails its important to respect the deadline and the delivery procedure (please use this <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com" target="_blank">email address</a>). I would also help if all the text is included in the body of the message body, avoiding attachments whenever possible.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-21085826269100940062013-01-28T13:32:00.002+01:002013-02-06T20:05:24.166+01:00Econometrics: weeks 1-2 (February 4th to 17th)The general idea of this blog is described (in spanish) in <a href="http://econometriamj.blogspot.com/p/acerca-de-este-blog.html">Acerca de este Blog</a>.<br />
<br />
The goals for these two weeks are:<br />
<ul>
<li>Explaining Lessons 1 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson1/Lesson1.pdf">Introduction to Econometrics</a>) and 2 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/Lesson2.pdf">Simple linear regression: graphical analysis</a>)</li>
<li>Doing some practical work with GRETL and the dataset <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/Hetero_NoNorm_NoLin.zip">simulated data</a></li>
</ul>
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Warning about the practical work</span></b>: Many of you have laptops. If you are willing to bring your own computer, we can do some practical work in the classroom.<br />
<a name='more'></a><b><br /></b>
<b>Activities:</b>
<br />
<br />
Students must <b>fill this <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dFJ2YlduUnBKTlVLMWEtQnlCR05aY0E6MQ">personal data form</a></b>
<br />
<br />
Review carefully the <a href="http://econometriamj.blogspot.com/p/econometrics.html">Econometrics website</a>. <b>Download and print</b> the following class notes:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson1/Lesson1.pdf">Introduction to Econometrics</a></li>
<li><a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/Lesson2.pdf">Simple linear regression: graphical analysis</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
As well as the dataset: <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/Hetero_NoNorm_NoLin.zip">simulated data</a>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Download and install GRETL</b>. This is a free Econometrics software package. We will use it for practical work. I suggest to follow these steps:<br />
<ul>
<li>Download my <a href="http://www.ucm.es/info/ecocuan/mjm/ectr1mj//InstalacionGRETL.pdf">Installation guide for GRETL</a></li>
<li>Download <a href="http://gretl.sourceforge.net/">GRETL</a> and install it following the instructions in previous document</li>
</ul>
<div>
Any issue related with installation of GRETL will be solved in the first seminar (February 22th).</div>
</div>
<div>
<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Review the following materials</b>:</div>
<br />
<ul>
<li>Wikipedia articles about: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometrics">Econometrics</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticisms_of_econometrics">Criticisms of Econometrics</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-sectional_data">Cross-sectional_data</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_series">Time series</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panel_data">Panel data</a></li>
<li>Video: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocGEhiLwDVc">A short intro to Linear Regression</a></li>
<li><a href="https://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Master/HoetingGivens_On_Communicating_Statistical_Results.pdf" target="_blank">Comunicating Statistical Results</a>, a very useful document by Professors G.H. Givens and J.A. Hoeting</li>
</ul>
<br />
<b>Revise some basic concepts of previous courses</b>:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Algebra: matrices, vectors, linear equations, matrix operations, inverse of a matrix</li>
<li>Statistics: descriptive statistics (mean, variance, correlation,...), estimation, hypotheses testing</li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
<b>Graded personal homework</b><br />
<br />
Send an e-mail to <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this address</a> (last day for delivery: Friday 15). This message should provide details about:<br />
<ul>
<li>problems that could have arised when installing GRETL, and</li>
<li>doubts about the topics explained in class</li>
</ul>
This e-mail will be assessed as part of the "active participation" item (10% of final grade). To facilitate processing the e-mails its important to respect the deadline and the delivery procedure (please use <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this email address</a>). I would also help if all the text is included in the body of the message body, avoiding attachments whenever possible.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-6611544736471781102012-06-06T17:48:00.004+02:002012-06-06T22:12:26.870+02:00Econometrics: Final gradesNext table summarizes the final grades, including the result of the June 5th exam:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq4XdXVrFdHkQU66yzUAWyd9phszXhlniAlw7U89fKMuT8jvaK9To_nY3Ifg-hmnqzS9VfgDVUXFXfVyCdHHI2Vd-BVCzkrIqVzKpIsIDt14qx6vQlTJ9-NznGnx7Njm84I5XsPlhdG58/s1600/Notas_Finales.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq4XdXVrFdHkQU66yzUAWyd9phszXhlniAlw7U89fKMuT8jvaK9To_nY3Ifg-hmnqzS9VfgDVUXFXfVyCdHHI2Vd-BVCzkrIqVzKpIsIDt14qx6vQlTJ9-NznGnx7Njm84I5XsPlhdG58/s400/Notas_Finales.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
In this <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exams/ECONOMETRICS_FINAL_EXAM_JUNE_2012_SOLVED.pdf">link</a> you can find the exam, with some short handwritten explanations. If some component of your grade looks wrong, please send me an e-mail and I will revise the case.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Teaching you has been both, a real challenge because of the lenguage, and a pleasure because of your sympathy and excellent attitude. Sadly I am not so satisfied with my own performance, as my teaching sometimes fell below the standards that I set to myself. Please accept my sincere apologies for these shortcomings.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
If I can do something for you, do not hesitate in telling me. Good luck!</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-82374761595235954862012-06-02T15:36:00.000+02:002012-06-06T22:14:52.128+02:00Econometrics: Partial gradesNext table summarizes three partial items in your grade: short tests, personal work (your essay about the Campus Crime dataset) and active participation (the periodic e-mails that you have been sending me). They account for 40% of the final grade. The remaining 60% will be determined by the final exam:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkImaSqi3d_T6EIGXwFMFd0Ljjw9WIf6gXAgMJtXKHN-Tkn0xE_b1NTPguztxBZEe_eeWagSR1cchvdy_agCsZfPqyPqmfoGwxTHZMkUhVsqAmFr8HyDOESZgXHU5nAqWc1_ZpmHn09XY/s1600/Imagen1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkImaSqi3d_T6EIGXwFMFd0Ljjw9WIf6gXAgMJtXKHN-Tkn0xE_b1NTPguztxBZEe_eeWagSR1cchvdy_agCsZfPqyPqmfoGwxTHZMkUhVsqAmFr8HyDOESZgXHU5nAqWc1_ZpmHn09XY/s320/Imagen1.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
In this <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exercises/Econometrics-Practical%20case.pdf">link</a> you can download the Campus Crime case. I added a summary of my personal solution at the end of the document. Once again, if something looks wrong please tell me and I will revise the case.<br />
<br />
The final exam will take place next tuesday, June 5th. It will be similar to previous tests except that:<br />
<ul>
<li>It will include 20 questions instead of 10</li>
<li>As in short tests, there will be three alternatives to answer each question and an additional "blank" option. On the other hand the grading policy will be more strict, that is: </li>
<ul>
<li>a correct answer adds 2 points to the final grade, while</li>
<li>an incorrect one subtracts 1 point, and</li>
<li>a blank answer does not add or subtract, so</li>
<li>the final grade will be the total of points obtained divided by 4</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The criterion behind this policy is that the expected grade for someone who answers at random should be zero points. Be aware that the penalty for a wrong answer is therefore thougher than the one I applied in the short tests, so you should very careful when choosing an option.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-22193759858713076482012-05-31T18:39:00.000+02:002012-06-01T14:10:57.963+02:00Econometrics: Test #2As planned, in May 31th you did the second short test. It consisted in solving the questions in the following <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exams/Econometrics_Short_Test2.pdf">test (correct answers in the last page)</a>.<br />
<br />
The results, as well as the final grade for the test exam component, are the following:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqMD3rQLjQilAu2IGs0VgvIteoxCAV7U4KhtAC-Kdqm5JY0WefJ9p4eTAjFr0Vn9sV2VSy7ofeDqHpESM9EZdTBtFAUpiQGgbuVYB4mUNtgmZVruR2rLXqNfe9xNRPATfzW66UQLv7sek/s1600/Lista.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqMD3rQLjQilAu2IGs0VgvIteoxCAV7U4KhtAC-Kdqm5JY0WefJ9p4eTAjFr0Vn9sV2VSy7ofeDqHpESM9EZdTBtFAUpiQGgbuVYB4mUNtgmZVruR2rLXqNfe9xNRPATfzW66UQLv7sek/s400/Lista.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The final grade has been computed as the highest grade from the first and second test, increased by a 20% if both were higher than 5 points. If something looks wrong please tell me and I will revise the case.<br />
<br />
By next monday, June 4th, I expect to publish the grades corresponding to partial exams (those in the upper list), individual work (the Campus Crime case) and Active participation (from the e-mails that you have been sending to me). If anyone did not send me the Campus Crime case yet, please do it!Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-19155232501531561722012-05-19T16:32:00.001+02:002012-05-30T17:34:17.471+02:00The "B" plan<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkxfp9K1MJG_EDvJ_zu_ViMLTUqiUtfP2DyGq2RTVYVERsYCcNv3l4PWZq0wKeUGfy4eVx8RBgIsxBHyncEB5awhAp9mb8l2S7BznHj8BsshrGKevq0ao-m9DtsarzXwY_cX_A5Qbh3uY/s1600/enfermo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkxfp9K1MJG_EDvJ_zu_ViMLTUqiUtfP2DyGq2RTVYVERsYCcNv3l4PWZq0wKeUGfy4eVx8RBgIsxBHyncEB5awhAp9mb8l2S7BznHj8BsshrGKevq0ao-m9DtsarzXwY_cX_A5Qbh3uY/s200/enfermo.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
Dear students,<br />
<br />
As you may know, last monday 14th I suffered a coronary event that required hospitalization. Obviously, this will have an impact on our teaching and evaluation plan, so it is time to define a "B" plan.<br />
<br />
First of all, <b>from wednesday 23th onwards <a href="http://www.ucm.es/info/ecocuan/tpa/">Professor Teo Pérez-Amaral</a> will substitute me</b>. You should go to classroom N-102 of Pabellón Prefabricado (Building nº 1).<br />
<br />
Teo teaches the english group in Economics and we share our teaching material, so the transition should be easy.<br />
<br />
Second, <b>I promised you that I would prepare some test-type questions</b> chosen from the Econometrics exams of 2000 Plan. You can download them through the following links: <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exercises/Selecci%C3%B3n%20de%20preguntas%20de%20los%20Temas%201-4.pdf">Lessons 1-4</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exercises/Selecci%C3%B3n%20preguntas%20de%20los%20Temas%204%20en%20adelante.pdf">Lesson 5 onwards</a>.<br />
<br />
These questions are written in Spanish (sorry!) the right choice is marked and there is a short explanation in my awful handwritting (sorry again!). Be also aware that these questions offer four possible choices, while your exam will offer only three choices.<br />
<br />
Third, <b>next May 30th we were going to do a graded practical case in the classroom</b>. Now it will be non-presential. Please download this <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exercises/Econometrics-Practical%20case-Blind.doc">MS-Word document</a> (<span style="color: red;"><b>I updated the file on May 30th to correct a minor typo</b></span>). It contains all the data and indications required. You should write your own analysis, according to the instructions, and send it to <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">trabajoeconometria@gmail.com</a> before May 31th. You are free to consult with each other: I am you to write and understand completely the analysis and its conclusiones.<br />
<br />
Fourth, <b>we scheduled a second test exam</b>. It will cover Lessons 1 to 6. I will prepare the questions and Teo will supervise it. It has been scheduled for next May 31th.<br />
<br />
Last, <b>I am allowing comments to this post</b>. If you use these comments to ask your doubts, my answers will be available to everyone.<br />
<br />
I am very sorry for these inconveniences and will do my best to minimize them.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-65501803936524885142012-04-25T13:05:00.000+02:002012-04-25T15:01:47.849+02:00Econometrics: Test #1As planned, in April 25th we did the "dry run for the final exam". It consisted in solving the questions in the following <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exams/Econometrics_Short_Test1.pdf">test (correct answers in the last page)</a>.<br />
<br />
The results are published both, in the <a href="http://econometriamj.blogspot.com.es/p/econometrics.html">Econometrics tab</a> and in this post (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Exams/Grades.xlsx">click here to download the spreadsheet</a>). This document is encripted with the password that I gave you in class. I will keep updating it as I collect new grades.<br />
<br />
As I told you in class, 40% of the final grade will be decided on the basis of:<br />
<ul>
<li>Two test exams (the second one will take place in the regular class of May 31th)</li>
<li>A practical exam, that will be done in the seminar of May 30th</li>
<li>The bi-weekly e-mails, that you have been sending me so irregularly up to now</li>
</ul>
<div>
The grade resulting from the test exams will be the higher of both one plus an incentive, that will be awarded if both grades are 5 or better in the standard spanish scale (from 0, lowest grade, to 10, highest grade).</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-40115142710596088012012-04-19T20:32:00.001+02:002012-04-19T20:32:37.379+02:00Econometrics: week 11 (April 23-29th)In weeks 7-9 we:<br />
<ul>
<li>Explained <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/Lesson41.pdf">Lessons 4.1</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/Lesson42.pdf">4.2</a>, and</li>
<li>concluded the practical work with the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/beauty.gdt">Beauty</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/hprice1.gdt">hprice1</a> datasets</li>
</ul>
<div>
<a name='more'></a></div>
<div>
In the seminar, we solved this <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise%20sheet-1.pdf">exercise sheet</a> and did a <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/IndicationsForecastingPractice.pdf">forecasting exercise with the Beauty dataset</a>.<br />
<br />
The exercise sheet illustrated several ideas:<br />
<ol>
<li>Econometrics builds and generalizes over the results of previous statistics courses, for example because...</li>
<li>...the OLS estimate for the constant term of a model with no additional regressor is the sample mean of the endogenous variables, and also,</li>
<li>...assuming that all the variables are mean-centered, the OLS estimate for the slope of a model with a single regressor is related with standard measures of linear relationship such as the sample covariance or the sample correlation coefficient.</li>
<li>When the variables in the model are re-scaled, some results may change, while others remain unaffected. The same happens when one adds or subtracts arbitrary constants to the value of the variable. These ideas are described mathematically in a <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/Effect_Of_Linear_Transformations_On_The_LM.pdf">short note</a></li>
</ol>
<div>
The goals for this week are:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Explain Lessons <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson5/Lesson51.pdf">5.1</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson5/Lesson52.pdf">5.2</a></li>
<li>In the extra seminar of next April 25th we will do a <a href="http://econometriamj.blogspot.com.es/2012/04/dry-run-for-final-exam.html">"dry run" for the final exam</a>. It will consist in a short test with 10 questions about Lessons 1-3.</li>
</ul>
Your Bolonia homework for next week consists in preparing this test. In particular, <b>you are not required to send an e-mail</b>.</div>
<div>
<br />
To prepare it you should:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Review the material corresponding to Lessons 1, 2 and 3 and clarify any doubts</li>
<li>Revise again the calculations in the exercises: <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise_OLS.xls">Many least squares calculations done (almost) by hand</a> and the last <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise%20sheet-1.pdf">exercise sheet</a>.</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-75766189208430475222012-04-11T20:52:00.001+02:002012-04-20T14:32:43.724+02:00A "dry run" for the final examAs I announced in class, next April 25th we will do a "dry run" for the final exam. It will consist in a short test with 10 questions about Lessons 1-3.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
The final exam will have 20 questions and will cover all the syllabus. Apart from this, the conditions will be identical to those of the final test, i.e.<br />
<ul>
<li>Each question will be multiple-choice, with three alternatives to answer and a fourth "blank" option.</li>
<li>It will include both, "theoretical" and "practical" questions</li>
<li>A correct answer adds 3 points to the final grade while an incorrect one subtracts 1 point. A blank answer does not add or subtract.</li>
<li>You will have 45 minutes to answer the test</li>
<li>I will publish the results as 0-10 numerical grades, computed dividing the number of points obtained by 3</li>
<li>No books or internet devices (smartphones, PDAs...) are allowed during the exam. You may use a handheld calculator.</li>
</ul>
<div>
I may take into account the grade obtained as part of the "Individual work and partial exams" and "Active participation" items. If the result is good enough (>5 points) it will add (never subtract) to the final grade.</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-64873228075947993882012-03-21T22:47:00.001+01:002012-03-27T18:41:24.982+02:00Econometrics: weeks 7-10 (March 26th to April 22th)In weeks 5-6 we:<br />
<ul>
<li>Explained Lesson 3.2 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Lesson3_2.pdf">Inference</a>)</li>
<li>Continued the work with <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise_OLS.xls">Many least squares calculations done (almost) by hand</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Example_Weight_vs_Age.zip">Weight vs. age for a sample of children</a></li>
<li>In the March 21th seminar, we concluded the work with the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/ceosal2.gdt">CEO compensation</a> dataset</li>
</ul>
<div>
<a name='more'></a></div>
<div>
<br />
The second and last work session with the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/ceosal2.gdt">CEO compensation</a> data started by<br />
<ul>
<li>Deleting some outliers. We found that the model fit improved.</li>
<li>Fitting a model for the log of salaries. Natural logs of non-negative economic data are typically closer to the normal model.</li>
</ul>
<br />
When we tried to discern which model (for salaries or log-salaries) was better, we discovered that:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>You should not compare apples and oranges</b></div>
<div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
...meaning that R-squared values and information criteria are useful to compare alternative models only if the endogenous variable in all of them is the same. This does not happen in this case.<br />
<br />
When comparing models for variables with different transformations one may use other criteria, such as chosing:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b>the model that is closer to fulfilling the regression model hypotheses</b> or, alternatively,</li>
<li><b>the one that provides the best out-of-sample forecasts</b></li>
</ul>
<br />
Using the first criterion, the log-transformed model provides residuals are closer to normality. This is specially important when you want to do test hypotheses because standard testing results depend critically on normality.<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
The goals for weeks 7-10 are:<br />
<ul>
<li>Explaining Lessons 4.1 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/Lesson41.pdf">Discrete and semi-continuous regressors. Polynomial terms</a>) and 4.2 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/Lesson42.pdf">Collinearity</a>).</li>
<li>Concluding the revision of the practical materials <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise_OLS.xls">Many least squares calculations done (almost) by hand</a></li>
<li>In the April 18th seminar, we will revise and make further progress with the homework defined below</li>
</ul>
<br />
<b>Activities:</b><br />
<br />
<b>Download again Lesson 3.2 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Lesson3_2.pdf">Inference</a>)</b>, as I corrected some errata and added a short section about out-of-sample forecasting<br />
<br />
<b>Graded personal homework</b><br />
<br />
Send an e-mail to <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this address</a> (last day for delivery: April, 17th). This message should:<br />
<ul>
<li>Describe any doubts </li>
<li>Describe broadly the results obtained when: (a) solving this <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise%20sheet-1.pdf">exercise sheet</a>, and (b) performing a forecasting exercise with the Beauty dataset that is described <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/IndicationsForecastingPractice.pdf">here</a></li>
</ul>
This e-mail will be assessed as part of the "active participation" item (10% of final grade). To facilitate processing the e-mails it is important to comply with the deadline and follow the delivery procedure (please use <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this email address</a>). I would also help if all the text is included in the body of the message body, avoiding attachments whenever possible.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-89722320288758822352012-03-08T13:39:00.000+01:002012-03-09T23:15:21.508+01:00Econometrics: weeks 5-6 (March 12th to 25th)In weeks 3-4 we:<br />
<ul>
<li>Explained Lesson 3.1 (except for the last slide) </li>
<li>Worked with Gretl, using mainly the datasets: <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Example_Weight_vs_Age.zip">Weight vs. age for a sample of children</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/ceosal2.gdt">CEO compensation</a></li>
<li>Illustrated the practical computation of main OLS results using the example: <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise_OLS.xls">Many least squares calculations done (almost) by hand</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
<br />
<a name='more'></a></div>
<div>
The work with the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/ceosal2.gdt">CEO compensation</a> data was centered on a key idea:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>If you start your analysis with no questions, you will end it with no answers</b></div>
<div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Specifically we concluded that, when confronting a new and perhaps complex dataset, it is important to have:</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>A very clear final goal</b>. In this case: "Building a model to estimate a fair compensation for a given CEO, taking into account both, personal and company information"</li>
<li><b>A specific agenda for the preliminary analysis</b> (i.e., what one does before estimating a model). Two reasonable goals in this case are: (a) detecting outliers, to be excluded from the sample, and (b) assessing whether the distribution of "Salary" is close to the normal model ot not, to decide if a log transformation of the original data is advisable</li>
<li><b>A specific agenda for the estimation-diagnosis phase</b>. After estimating a model one typically follows a "quality control" protocol, asking questions such as: "Are the parameter values meaningful?" "Are they significant?" "Are the residuals normal and homoscedastic?" ...</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Working with the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Example_Weight_vs_Age.zip">Weight vs. age for a sample of children</a> we derived two main learnings:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>When modeling a dataset one should balance both, achieving a good fit and avoiding excessive model complexity, given the sample size</li>
<li>If one models a sample which does not represent the whole universe (e.g., the kids in this sample were 7-14 years old) weird things hapen when one tries to predict values outside the sample constraint (e.g., the weight of a newborn)</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
The goals for weeks 5-6 are:<br />
<ul>
<li>Explaining Lesson 3.2 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Lesson3_2.pdf">Inference</a>) and 4.1 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/Lesson41.pdf">Discrete and semi-continuous regressors. Polynomial terms</a>) at least partially.</li>
<li>Reviewing the practical materials <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise_OLS.xls">Many least squares calculations done (almost) by hand</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Example_Weight_vs_Age.zip">Weight vs. age for a sample of children</a></li>
<li>In the March 21th seminar, we will revise and make further progress with the homework defined below, mainly that related with the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/ceosal2.gdt">CEO compensation</a> dataset</li>
</ul>
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Warning about the seminar</span></b><br />
<br />
Next Wednesday, March 21th, from 12,00h to 13,30h (to compensate for the class lost) we will have the second seminar. Please bring your computers, if you can.<br />
<br />
<b>Activities:</b>
<br />
<br />
Students must <b>fill this <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dFJ2YlduUnBKTlVLMWEtQnlCR05aY0E6MQ">personal data form</a></b>
<br />
<br />
<b>Download and print </b>Lesson 3.2 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Lesson3_2.pdf">Inference</a>) and 4.1 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson4/Lesson41.pdf">Discrete and semi-continuous regressors. Polynomial terms</a>)<br />
<br />
<b>Download </b><a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Case_Beauty.zip">Wooldridge's "Beauty" dataset</a><br />
<br />
<b>Graded personal homework</b><br />
<br />
Send an e-mail to <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this address</a> (last day for delivery: Tuesday 20th). This message should:<br />
<ul>
<li>Describe any doubts about the topics explained</li>
<li>Continue the analysis of the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/ceosal2.gdt">CEO compensation</a> dataset. Specifically: (a) delete some possible outliers and assess if the model improved, (b) build an alternative model for the natural log of "Salary", and (c) decide whether the model for the original data is better that the model for log-transformed values</li>
<li>Include a 500 words approx. summary of your analysis and describe any doubts that may have arised</li>
</ul>
This e-mail will be assessed as part of the "active participation" item (10% of final grade). To facilitate processing the e-mails its important to respect the deadline and the delivery procedure (please use <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this email address</a>). I would also help if all the text is included in the body of the message body, avoiding attachments whenever possible.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-40490071105576248982012-02-23T11:57:00.000+01:002012-02-29T10:13:39.506+01:00Econometrics: weeks 3-4 (February 27th to March 11th)In weeks 1-2 we:<br />
<ul>
<li>Explained Lessons 1-2 and started Lesson 3.1</li>
<li>Provided an introduction to Gretl, using mainly the dataset: <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/Hetero_NoNorm_NoLin.zip">Simulated data</a> </li>
</ul>
<br />
The goals for weeks 3-4 are:<br />
<ul>
<li>Explaining Lessons 3.1 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Lesson3_1.pdf">Estimation</a>) and 3.2 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Lesson3_2.pdf">Inference</a>) at least partially. If you already downloaded the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Lesson3_1.pdf">Estimation</a> lesson, please update it, as I changed a few things</li>
<li>Reviewing the practical materials <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Exercise_OLS.xls">Many least squares calculations done (almost) by hand</a> and <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson3/Example_Weight_vs_Age.zip">Weight vs. age for a sample of children</a></li>
<li>In the March 7th seminar, we will revise and make further progress with the homework defined below. Mainly that related with the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/ceosal2.gdt">CEO compensation</a> dataset</li>
</ul>
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Warning about March 1st class</span></b><br />
<br />
Next Thursday, March 1st, I will not be able to attend the class due to an institutional obligation. We will recover the time lost using the second hours of the seminar.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Warning about the seminar</span></b><br />
<br />
Next Wednesday, March 7th, from 12,00h to 13,30h (to compensate for the class lost) we will have the second seminar. We will have this seminar and all subsequent ones at classroom # 218. Please bring your computer if you can.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><b>Activities:</b>
<br />
<br />
Students must <b>fill this <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dFJ2YlduUnBKTlVLMWEtQnlCR05aY0E6MQ">personal data form</a></b>
<br />
<br />
<b>Check GRETL installation</b>, in particular, make sure that you have, at least: (a) Tramo Seats expansion package, (b) X-12 ARIMA expansion package and (c) Wooldridge's dataset (I recommend installing the other datasets too, just in case)<br />
<br />
<b>Revise some basic concepts of previous courses (but this time <span style="color: red;"><u>ACTUALLY DO IT</u>!</span>)</b>:
<br />
<br />
- Algebra: matrices, vectors, linear equations, matrix operations, inverse of a matrix<br />
- Statistics: descriptive statistics (mean, variance, correlation,...), estimation, hypotheses testing<br />
<br />
<b>Download PQRS</b> from <a href="http://www.eco.rug.nl/medewerk/knypstra/pqrs.html">this website</a>. This free software does some useful things, among them, it substitutes statistical tables. PQRS does not need installation: you just download the .zip file, decompress it in any folder and run it "as is",<br />
<br />
<b>Graded personal homework</b><br />
<br />
Send an e-mail to <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this address</a> (last day for delivery: Tuesday 6th). This message should:<br />
<ul>
<li>Describe any doubts about the topics explained in class</li>
<li>Describe any doubts that may have arised when analyzing the dataset:
<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/Hetero_NoNorm_NoLin.zip">Simulated data</a> following the process documented in the last sections of Lesson 2 (<b><a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/Lesson2.pdf">Simple linear regression: foundations and graphical analysis</a></b>)</li>
<li>Include a 500 words approx. summary of your analysis of the <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/ceosal2.gdt">CEO compensation</a> dataset</li>
</ul>
This e-mail will be assessed as part of the "active participation" item (10% of final grade). To facilitate processing the e-mails its important to respect the deadline and the delivery procedure (please use <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this email address</a>). I would also help if all the text is included in the body of the message body, avoiding attachments whenever possible.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-79078313020715608972012-02-14T13:18:00.001+01:002012-02-22T21:58:16.872+01:00Econometrics: weeks 1-2 (February 13th to 26th)The general idea of this blog is described (in spanish) in <a href="http://econometriamj.blogspot.com/p/acerca-de-este-blog.html">Acerca de este Blog</a>.<br />
<br />
The goals for these two weeks are:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Explaining Lessons 1 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson1/Lesson1.pdf">Introduction to Econometrics</a>) and 2 (<a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/Lesson2.pdf">Simple linear regression: graphical analysis</a>)</li>
<li>Doing some practical work with GRETL and the dataset <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/Hetero_NoNorm_NoLin.zip">simulated data</a> in the first Seminar (February 22th)</li>
</ul>
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Warning about the Seminar</span></b><br />
<br />
Next Wednesday, February 22th, at 12,00h, we will have the first seminar. According to plan, it was to be held at Computer Room #1.<br />
<br />
As you know, the computers in this room are quite obsolete. On the other hand, many of you have laptops. If you are willing to bring your own computer, we could have the seminar in the classroom.<br />
<br />
We will discuss and decide about this option in the next class.
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">Warning about March 1st class</span></b><br />
<br />
Next Thursday, March 1st, I will not be able to attend the class due to an institutional obligation. We will recover the time lost using the second hours of the seminar.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><b>Activities:</b>
<br />
<br />
Students must <b>fill this <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dFJ2YlduUnBKTlVLMWEtQnlCR05aY0E6MQ">personal data form</a></b>
<br />
<br />
Review carefully the <a href="http://econometriamj.blogspot.com/p/econometrics.html">Econometrics website</a>. <b>Download and print</b> the following class notes:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson1/Lesson1.pdf">Introduction to Econometrics</a></li>
<li><a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/Lesson2.pdf">Simple linear regression: graphical analysis</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
As well as the dataset: <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson2/Hetero_NoNorm_NoLin.zip">simulated data</a>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Download and install GRETL</b>. This is a free Econometrics software package. We will use it for practical work. I suggest to follow these steps:<br />
<ul>
<li>Download my <a href="http://www.ucm.es/info/ecocuan/mjm/ectr1mj//InstalacionGRETL.pdf">Installation guide for GRETL</a></li>
<li>Download <a href="http://gretl.sourceforge.net/">GRETL</a> and install it following the instructions in previous document</li>
</ul>
<div>
Any issue related with installation of GRETL will be solved in the first seminar (February 22th).</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Review the following complementary materials</b>:</div>
<br />
- <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson1/CrossSectionLectures.zip">Two Nobel lectures about the econometrics of cross-section data</a><br />
- <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14365272/Econometrics/Lesson1/TimeSeriesLectures.zip">Two Nobel lectures about the econometrics of time series data</a><br />
- Video: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocGEhiLwDVc">A short intro to Linear Regression</a><br />
<br />
<b>Revise some basic concepts of previous courses</b>:
<br />
<br />
- Algebra: matrices, vectors, linear equations, matrix operations, inverse of a matrix<br />
- Statistics: descriptive statistics (mean, variance, correlation,...), estimation, hypotheses testing<br />
<br />
<b>Graded personal homework</b><br />
<br />
Send an e-mail to <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this address</a> (last day for delivery: Tuesday 21). This message should provide details about:<br />
<ul>
<li>problems that could have arised when installing GRETL, and</li>
<li>doubts about the topics explained in class</li>
</ul>
This e-mail will be assessed as part of the "active participation" item (10% of final grade). To facilitate processing the e-mails its important to respect the deadline and the delivery procedure (please use <a href="mailto:trabajoeconometria@gmail.com">this email address</a>). I would also help if all the text is included in the body of the message body, avoiding attachments whenever possible.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-12139854047087341732011-09-05T13:23:00.002+02:002011-09-20T17:46:09.846+02:00Instrucciones para el examen de Septiembre 2011 de Econometría I<b>Instrucciones para el examen de Septiembre de Econometría I:</b><br />
<br />
El examen tendrá lugar el miércoles 7 de septiembre, a las 15:30, en las plantas 1 y 3 del aulario.<br />
<br />
Cada grupo tendrá asignada un aula concreta:<br />
<br />
<i>Aulario 1ª Planta:</i><br />
<ul>
<li>ADE A Aulario 108</li>
<li>ADE B Aulario 104</li>
<li>ADE C Aulario 111</li>
<li>ADE D Aulario 104</li>
<li>ADE E Aulario 103</li>
<li>ADE F Aulario 103</li>
</ul>
<div>
<i>Aulario 3ª Planta:</i></div>
<ul>
<li>ECO A Aulario 303</li>
<li>ECO B Aulario 304</li>
<li>ECO C Aulario 304</li>
<li>ECO D Aulario 304</li>
<li>DERECHO-ADE B Aulario 305</li>
<li>DERECHO-ADE C Aulario 305 </li>
</ul>
Debéis examinaros en el aula asignada al grupo en el que estáis matriculados. De esta forma todos los exámenes de un grupo se entregan juntos al profesor que debe corregirlos, acelerando la corrección.<br />
<br />
Tened en cuenta que sólo se corregirán las respuestas indicadas en la carátula del examen. Es importante marcarlas con claridad, indicando también en qué casos se deja la respuesta en blanco, y reservar un tiempo para revisar que las respuestas se han marcado correctamente.<br />
<br />
<b>Corrección y revisión</b><br />
<br />
Terminaré de corregir el lunes 11, como muy tarde. Publicaré los resultados en el tablón del aula 108 del Aulario y en UCMNET. En mi página WEB de Econometría I (<a href="http://www.ucm.es/info/ecocuan/mjm/ectr1mj/index.html">www.ucm.es/info/ecocuan/mjm/ectr1mj</a>) publicaré un solucionario del examen.<br />
<br />
En la lista y en la WEB se convocará la revisión. Consistirá en una explicación en grupo de las respuestas correctas según el solucionario que se menciona en el párrafo previo. Los alumnos que deseen que su examen vuelva a corregirse podrán solicitarlo una vez terminada la explicación. Las rectificaciones se comunicarán personalmente. En ningún caso se aplicará un baremo distinto del que figura en el examen, ni se complementará la nota mediante nuevos trabajos.<br />
<br />
<b>Alumnos de 7ª convocatoria</b><br />
<br />
Pueden examinarse en el aula que deseen, ya que sus exámenes se corregirán por tribunal y sus resultados se publicarán aparte, en el tablón de anuncios del Departamento, situado al lado del despacho N-317 del Pabellón Prefabricado. Por este motivo, es importante indicar en la portada del examen "7ª Convocatoria"<b><br />
</b>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4060147048449405505.post-49768013035355493762011-06-21T13:01:00.000+02:002011-06-21T13:01:24.366+02:00Resultados del examen de Junio 2011 de Econometría IICalificaciones de 4º LECO, Grupo A en el examen de 17 de Junio de 2011 (Archivo <a href="http://www.blogger.com/Notas.zip">ZIP</a>)<br />
<br />
Para abrir este archivo es necesaria la palabra clave que dije en clase. Si la habéis olvidado, enviadme un mensaje con vuestro nombre completo<br />
<span><a href="mailto:mjerez@ccee.ucm.es"></a></span><br />
<div align="left"><br />
</div><div align="left">Si queréis venir a la revisión, por favor imprimid el solucionario comentado del examen (Archivo <a href="http://www.blogger.com/Ectr2-ExJun11-Resuelto.pdf">PDF</a>)</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05157628292082191594noreply@blogger.com